According to Der Spiegel, forecasters are now expecting Q1 year-on-year GDP of -6.3 %. For Q2, they see things worsening to -8.2 %.
Based on the analysis in my last post, this would mean a further contraction of 2.6 % from Q1 to Q2 (and Q1 also being a bit worse, with -3.3 % from Q4).
If this proves true (and assuming stagnation in Q3 and Q4), we would indeed be at -7 % for the full year.
I don't claim to have a particularly good crystal-ball, but intuitively, I still don't believe it will be that bad. We will see.
Did the Greek bailout money go to ‘liquor and women’?
vor 11 Stunden