Dienstag, 7. Juli 2009

More on Arcandor

Arcandor's market capitalisation as of today: 140 m €

How come the shares are still worth so much?

If investors are betting on a "best case" upside, what would they need to expect?

Let's see some possible calculations:

80 % zero value, 20 % 700 m € value
90 % zero value, 10 % 1.4 bn € value

Can anybody seriously expect an upside of that magnitude?

Hmmm, maybe some investors saw me spending 34,99 € at a Munich Karstadt this morning, and that gave them a much-needed boost of confidence?

On a side note:

I noticed that KarstadtQuelle Bank is aggressively advertising term deposits (3.6 % for 2 years).

While it's true that they are not owned by Arcandor (instead, they are owned by Valovis Bank, which in turn is owned by the Arcandor Pension Trust), most of their business appears to be linked to Karstadt and Quelle.

Right now, they still have 8 branches in Karstadt department stores, but all of them will close within two months.

I wonder: What sort of sustainable business model do they plan on implementing going forward?


  1. Sounds like they are inspired by the Kaupthing business model...

  2. I was tempted to give them some money. After all, they are part of the Einlagensicherungsfonds and all that.

    But then I thought: What the heck, who wants all the hassle of having to make sure to eventually get your money back when they go out of business...

  3. Checked the bank website. They don't even have the bank's financial statements online. If you want to see it, you need to send them a mail, and they will send it to you.