Montag, 18. Mai 2009

China's Skies

According to a Boeing executive, China will need to buy 3,700 new jet airliners over the next 20 years.

Current stock is 1,330, and it is projected to increase to 4,560 by 2027. In other words, an increase of 240 % over 18 years, or close to 8 % annual growth.

(For comparison: Lufthansa, one of the world's biggest airlines, currently operates 500 aircraft. That includes its subsidiary Swissair, as well as the small regional jets of its regional arms.)

Personally, I think this is not a realistic projection. China's air traffic will not keep growing at 8 % for the next 18 years. But of course it will grow, and quite substantially so.

Which once again leads to an inevitable conclusion: With all these additional planes and cars in China (and India, and Vietnam, and Indonesia, and...), where is all the oil going to come from? Much higher prices and crowding out of saturated markets (i.e. Europe, but also US) are sure to follow. The only question is: When?

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