Apparently, two more research institutes have now downgraded their projections for German 2009 GDP to "best case -5 %, worst case worse than -6 %". I assume that puts their base case at around -6 %.
(Edit: And Commerzbank just revised its forecast to "-6 % to -7 %")
It seems that all those forecasters that still refused to acknowledge the severity of the downturn less than half a year ago have now switched to the other extreme. While it is of course possible that we will end up at -6 %, I still think there will be some sort of bounce-back that will lift total 2009 figures into the -3 to -4 % range. Would still be the worst post-war year on record. By far.
If anybody wants to bet, I am willing to take a bet that Germany's GDP will decline by less than 5.0 % in the full year 2009 based on final official numbers as published by Destatis. Anybody?
Shaun Rein on the TSM
vor 10 Monaten
Hopes die last
AntwortenLöschenI hope that you are right.
I am sure about that you can not give a penny for the oppinion of this guys.