Montag, 23. März 2009

German GDP growth

Apparently, two more research institutes have now downgraded their projections for German 2009 GDP to "best case -5 %, worst case worse than -6 %". I assume that puts their base case at around -6 %.

(Edit: And Commerzbank just revised its forecast to "-6 % to -7 %")

It seems that all those forecasters that still refused to acknowledge the severity of the downturn less than half a year ago have now switched to the other extreme. While it is of course possible that we will end up at -6 %, I still think there will be some sort of bounce-back that will lift total 2009 figures into the -3 to -4 % range. Would still be the worst post-war year on record. By far.

If anybody wants to bet, I am willing to take a bet that Germany's GDP will decline by less than 5.0 % in the full year 2009 based on final official numbers as published by Destatis. Anybody?

1 Kommentar:

  1. Hopes die last

    I hope that you are right.

    I am sure about that you can not give a penny for the oppinion of this guys.